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On Monday, Feb. 18, I sat down and chatted with Saratoga Today’s Executive Editor and film aficionado Eric DeGrechie about this year’s Academy Awards.
What follows, is our predictions of who should win and who will win in eight categories that I believe most people consider the most prestigious awards. Best Adapted Screenplay - ED: I think it’s going to be a huge night for “No Country for Old Men.” I think it’s a decent flick, though I don’t feel it’s the strongest of the Coen’s (directors Joel and Ethan) works. I think “There Will Be Blood” should win. I think it should win a lot of awards. I think whenever it comes down to “No Country for Old Men” or “There Will Be Blood” the critics are going to side with the former. I think that’s a mistake, but I predict it’s what will happen. MR: I completely agree with that point. I think the Academy will side with “No Country for Old Men” in most of the categories that both of those films are nominated for, which is unfortunate because while they’re both very good movies, I’d give the edge to “There Will Be Blood.” In this category, I believe “No Country for Old Men” has a distinct advantage. I haven’t read the book the movie is based on, but all the reviews have said it’s a great adaptation, and the Coen Brothers screenplays are always really tight. Should win: ED — “There Will Be Blood,” MR – “No Country for Old Men” Will win: ED — “No Country for Old Men,” MR – “No Country for Old Men” Best Original Screenplay – ED: I’m a little weak on this category in terms of seeing the movies, but normally these screenplay awards go to movies nominated for Best Picture and then trickle down. I think because of that, Juno will win. I keep hearing how original the screenplay is, how original the movie is, and that the writer brings a young, fresh voice for the Academy to hear. MR: Juno definitely has the “hip” dialogue or whatever you want to call it. Honestly, I think it’s got the momentum. People have been talking about this movie since before it was even released in theaters, and the screenwriter has a pretty interesting story of her own, having formerly been a stripper. I think Juno will win, but “Lars and the Real Girl” should win. ED: That’s a movie that I really meant to see. Just from what I’ve heard about it reeks of original screenplay. It seems to really embody what an original screenplay would be. MR: Well, given its premise, “Lars and the Real Girl” had so much potential to be absolutely ridiculous. The fact that it’s so well done is just remarkable. Should win: ED — “Juno,” MR – “Lars and the Real Girl” Will win: ED — “Juno,” MR – “Juno” Best Supporting Actress – ED: “I’m Not There” was one of my favorite films of the year. I’m a big Bob Dylan fan. I thought Cate Blanchett was amazing. Of all the major awards, especially in terms of acting, this is the one most up in the air. The award season has been kind of split, and many years, this is a category where there’s a surprise. MR: “I’m Not There” was one of the few films this year I wanted to see and didn’t. Blanchett is nominated for Best Actress as well, but I think she’s got a much better shot here. I’ve got to go with Amy Ryan though. I think she surprised a lot of people with her performance in “Gone Baby Gone,” which I think is a really underrated movie. Should win: ED – Cate Blanchett, MR – Amy Ryan Will win: ED - Cate Blanchett, MR – Amy Ryan Best Supporting Actor – ED: This might be the most open and shut cases of the night. I don’t see anyone touching Javier Bardem. I’d like to see Hal Holbrook win for “Into the Wild.” He’s been a great actor for a long time. MR: Javier Bardem is going to win. He’s just a force in the movie. He’s a villain who goes around killing people, but people like him because there are these moments when he comes off as funny and human. Philip Seymour Hoffman stole many of the best scenes in “Charlie Wilson’s War,” but I’d be shocked if he won. Should win: ED – Hal Holbrook, MR – Philip Seymour Hoffman Will win: ED – Javier Bardem, MR – Javier Bardem Best Actress – ED: In the last week, I’ve seen “Away from Her” and “La Vie en Rose.” I believe Marion Cotillard will win this award. I wasn’t familiar with Edith Piaf prior to the film, but now I understand who she was and the complexities of her life. To play a character that’s as revered as Piaf is, and to show her from her teens to her 40s when she really hit rock bottom, I thought that this actress really nailed it. MR: This is always a tough category for me. It seems every time one of the usual suspects, like Cate Blanchett, Laura Linney or Kate Winslet, has a new film out they get nominated. This year, I think Julie Christie has a lot of good buzz surrounding her. Everyone who’s seen “Away from Her” seems taken by her performance. Should win: ED – Marion Cotillard, MR – Julie Christie Will win: ED – Marion Cotillard, MR – Julie Christie Best Actor – ED: This is Daniel Day-Lewis’ award to lose. I thought it was a surprise when he didn’t win for “Gangs of New York.” This is one of the more memorable roles in years, and one that will be talked about and discussed for many years to come. MR: Definitely Daniel Day-Lewis. His performance is one of the best of the past decade. He is hands down one of the best actors working, and deserves to be mentioned alongside people like Marlon Brando, Al Pacino and Robert De Niro. “There Will Be Blood” is a great movie, and it’s largely due to his performance. He just owns the screen. You never doubt that he is this person. He sucks you in completely. ED: Like a milkshake. “I drink your milkshake! I drink it up!” (For those of you that don’t know, this is from a very funny and psychotic speech Day-Lewis gives in “There Will Be Blood.”) Should win: ED – Daniel Day-Lewis, MR – Daniel Day-Lewis Will win: ED – Daniel Day-Lewis, MR – Daniel Day-Lewis Best Director – ED: This is another case of the Coens versus Paul Thomas Anderson. I think when all is said and done “There Will Be Blood” will be remembered for a much longer time, but the Coens will win this award. MR: “There Will Be Blood” is a phenomenal movie and a turning point in P.T. Anderson’s career. Anderson will likely be more scrutinized from here on out because of what he’s achieved with this film and because of how strong his previous efforts have been. That said, the Coen Brothers have never won for Best Director before and the critics just love “No Country for Old Men.” Should win: ED – Paul Thomas Anderson, MR – Paul Thomas Anderson Will win: ED – Ethan and Joel Coen, MR – Ethan and Joel Coen Best Picture – ED: “Michael Clayton” has received a lot of nods, but few awards at other award shows, so I kind of write it out. “Juno” fits in the same mold as last year’s “Little Miss Sunshine.” It’s an indie film that caught people’s eye, but I don’t think it will win. For me, it really comes down to the other three. I think “There Will Be Blood” should win, but the momentum seems to favor “No Country for Old Men.” I also prefer “Atonement” to “No Country for Old Men,” and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Academy went gaga for “Atonement” in this category because it fits the classic Best Picture mold. I would like to note my dissatisfaction with the Academy in neglecting to honor 2007’s best film, “Into the Wild.” I’m not sure if it was a political thing, but Emile Hirsch (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Best Director) and Eddie Vedder (Best Original Song) were all deserving of nomination at least. MR: The Academy is notorious for not representing what people actually go to see and for undervaluing really great films, but the choices this year aren’t too bad. “Michael Clayton” was nominated for seven Oscars, which has me a bit worried it may sweep. It’s an enjoyable genre film, but it’s become way overrated and certainly isn’t the top film of last year. “Juno” was a pretty big mainstream hit and has a lot of hype behind it, but it doesn’t really have the weight these other films do. I think “There Will Be Blood” should take this Oscar home because years from now people are still going to look back and think this is a great film. “No Country for Old Men” is a really good movie, but there’s a number of their other works that I’d put ahead of it such as “Barton Fink,” “Miller’s Crossing,” “The Big Lebowski,” Fargo” and “Blood Simple.” It deserved the nomination for Best Picture, but I don’t think it should win. Despite winning this award at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, I think “Atonement” is a long shot at best. The fact of the matter is if anything beats “No Country for Old Men” or “There Will Be Blood” it’ll be a major upset. Should win: ED — “There Will Be Blood,” MR – “There Will Be Blood” Will win: ED — “No Country for Old Men,” MR – “No Country for Old Men” |